What Now?

Image by .faramarz via Flickr

If you're like me, you've been rivited by the events happening on the streets of Iran. However, I've been trying to figure out what the end game of all of this is. I'm trying to look at this from both the governments & opposition side.
If I'm the government, I'm going to play this from a couple of angles. My playbook would be:
1. Let my goons do my dirty work - The Basiij militia have been doing all those dirty little things that the government can't really do. They've home invaded, murdered, & arrested citizens. I'd let them continue doing it. Scaring the opposition into submission is much easier than giving in.
2. Blame the West - Already done. The government's decided to go that route by blaming the U.S. & Great Britain for the unrest. I'm not saying that we aren't pushing some buttons. We're just not doing it publically because we really can't. However, I'm pretty sure we've been doing some sneaky things behind the scenes. Whatever works, I always say.
3. Pray that the world forgets after another week - We've all seen revolts come & go. Does anybody remember the revolt in Thailand recently? How about Burma? Sri Lanka? I thought so. The world tends to get collective ADD when these things happen. If I'm the government, I just play this one out to a stalemate & the world will move onto another event like, say, a North Korean missle launch that's coming up in a couple of weeks.
Now, if I'm the opposition, here's what I'd do:
1. Refine my approach & kick it up a notch- Demonstrating is all well & good but it doesn't do too much after a while. I march, they beat & kill me, repeat cycle the next day. Unfortunately, it may be time to get a little violent but make it targeted. I'd start by taking out some of those Basiij militia. I'd destroy their numerous headquarters & attack them while they try to attack me on their motorcycles. After all, there's more of me than there are of them. I'm not condoning violence but it seems that it has now come to that point, unfortunately.
2. Get some of the army on my side - The revolutionary guard backs the Supreme Leader for now. I have to believe, though, that there are some, if not most, who are sympathetic to my cause. If I make a direct & public appeal to them, maybe I can stir up a little revolt within their ranks.
3. Get things moving a little faster - Since the world tends to forget quickly, I need to keep my cause in the news. I know that the recount will be just as rigged as the first election. I need to keep giving my people hope. My leaders need to show their faces a little more even though many of them have been targeted. Maybe shame a few countries into taking sides officially. If the death of the young lady Neda can't strike a chord in world leaders, I don't know what will.
So there's my game plan for both sides; at least, it's how I figure they'll try to play it out. I'm not sure how this whole thing will go. My cynical side (which is rather large) tells me that this whole thing will become another Tienanman Square & will fade into the woodwork of history. Who knows, though? We have a black president so nothing's impossible, is it?

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